Cracking the Code to This Economic Cycle

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If the unpredictability of this cycle has left you confused, you're not alone.

Since Gerard Minack, director of Minack Advisors, last appeared on Real Vision in April 2022, leading indicators have wrongfooted investors time and time again. If markets have left you with a sense of cognitive dissonance, Gerard says that’s totally understandable.

In this discussion with Raoul Pal, Gerard explores his current macro framework and the contrasting views he's considering in an effort to understand these economic shifts. Recorded on August 14, 2023.

CHAPTERS
1 Why Gerard Is No Longer in the Secular Stagnation Camp 01:55
2 Will We Have Higher Real Rates Going Forward? 0:10:32
3 Higher CapEx Demand and Productivity 0:19:23
4 Where Are We in the Cycle? 0:28:21
5 Why Have Leading Indicators Wrongfooted Investors? 0:34:48
6 Reconciling 2022 vs 2023 Market Performance 0:48:36
7 Gerard's View on China 0:55:53
8 The Takeaways 01:04:07

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